Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has has something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
