🔗 Share this article An Forecasting Platform User Profited $436K on Wagers Predicting Venezuela's Political Shift. In this photo illustration, a Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone. An individual made nearly half a million dollars on the ouster of Venezuela's president immediately preceding it was officially announced, raising questions about the possibility of profiting from inside knowledge of the event. Sudden Shift in Forecasts Bets placed on the crypto-platform, an online prediction market, that Nicolás Maduro would be no longer in control by the end of January rose in the time leading up to former President Trump declared on January 3rd that the president had been taken into custody. A single trader, which registered on the site recently and made four bets, all on the Venezuelan situation, earned over $436,000 from a modest bet of $32,537. Who placed the bet is a mystery. This unidentified trader had only a cryptographic address for identification. Odds Fluctuate Before News Break Platform data shows that participants estimated the likelihood of Maduro's exit at just a low 6.5 percent in the late afternoon of Friday, January 2nd. Yet these probabilities had climbed to 11% by late Friday night and spiked dramatically in the morning of Saturday, pointing to a sudden change in positions right before the public announcement was made. "This particular bet has all the characteristics of a trade based on inside information," said Dennis Kelleher. Several of other platform users also earned significant sums from similar wagers. Political Attention Grows Elected officials are beginning to pay attention. Proposed legislation introduced on recently aims to prohibit public officials from placing bets on forecasting platforms if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a bet. Industry Context Prediction markets have become increasingly popular in recent years, with users able to wager on everything from sports to politics. This sector encountered regulatory challenges under the Biden administration. But it has received a warmer welcome during the current presidency. Trading on insider information is illegal in the securities markets, but there are more ambiguous rules in the event betting arena. A spokesperson for Kalshi said their site "strictly forbids such activities of any form."